Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-NFL's biggest early season surprise? Why Houston Texans stand out

On any given week,Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center USA TODAY Sports' roundtable question for NFL writers and columnists tends to produce a variety of responses. Not so this time around.

With four weeks of the 2023 NFL season already in the books, it seemed like an appropriate time to highlight some of the biggest surprises of the early going. It seemed like a good bet that a few different players, coaches and teams would get shoutouts, but one franchise clearly stood out above the rest (and you can see why in our explanations).

Nevertheless, we insisted on asking USA TODAY Sports' NFL coverage team: What has been the most surprising development of the early season?

Our staffers' answers:

The Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are in first place! Well, sort of. Every team in the AFC South is 2-2, with Houston taking a two-game winning streak into Atlanta after a 30-6 blasting of Pittsburgh that was so complete that new coach DeMeco Ryans awarded a game ball to every man on the roster.

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Ah, Ryans. His potential as a future head coaching star was projected by many in recent years, and while it's too soon to declare ultimate success, he's off to a wonderful start. One thing for certain: He won't be one-and-done like his predecessors, Lovie Smith in 2022 and David Culley in 2021. With one more win, Ryans will match the victory tally that Smith produced last year.

The surprise isn't that the culture has changed under Ryans, a former Texans linebacker and previously 49ers defensive coordinator. That was expected, given the endorsements from 49ers players. The surprise is that the results are showing up so quickly as the vision of Ryans and (let's not overlook) GM Nick Caserio is coming into focus. The Texans were so aggressive with the draft, using the No. 2 pick on quarterback C.J. Stroud while trading to land the No. 3 pick from Arizona, used on edge rusher Will Anderson. Presto, the cornerstone players on offense and defense. And the Texans are getting contributions from several others from a deep draft class. Yet it all starts with Stroud, who has a 6-0 TD-to-INT ratio and robust 100.6 passer rating to spark a passing game that – surprise! – ranks fourth in the NFL. There's much growth that still needs to happen for Houston, but the vibe is so different now. Finally. And hey, with their "Battle Red" alternate uniforms and helmets, the Texans look the part, too. – Jarrett Bell

It’s not a huge surprise that the Houston Texans are an improved team in 2023, especially given their recent baseline. But who saw them emerging as a potential playoff contender? New head coach DeMeco Ryans has seemingly stabilized a defense that ranked 30^th or worse the previous three seasons – not a shock given his reputation on that side of the ball. But, more important, he seems to have righted the organization that drafted him in 2006, when he became the Defensive Rookie of the Year. One primary reason is the potential Offensive Rookie of the Year playing quarterback for the Texans, C.J. Stroud not only making a ton of plays behind a decimated offensive line and with a seemingly average receiving corps but also avoiding crucial mistakes. The Texans are no longer an easy out – and that’s apparently selling them short given how they’ve embarrassed the Pittsburgh Steelers and reigning AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars in recent weeks. This should be a squad to be monitored – very possibly for years to come. – Nate Davis

Panning the Texans had been in vogue for such a while that maybe it went on for too long. Perhaps they made out like bandits in the 2023 draft, taking quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson second and third overall, respectively. For all of the talk they missed an opportunity for the No. 1 pick, Stroud has been the best rookie QB thus far – albeit a small sample size. They can’t run the ball, but with Stroud leading the aerial attack, the Texans rank fourth in passing yards per game (281.3) and fifth in yards per play through the air (7.4). Only three teams are better at converting on third down (48.44%). Houston managed to score more than 20 points in four games last season; they’ve already put up 21 or more in the last three weeks. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is already executing a vision in his first season. The AFC South is not a juggernaut division, so anything’s possible, but making the playoffs is an unfair expectation. Competency is a great start, and there has been a sufficient amount of that in H-Town through four weeks. – Chris Bumbaca

The (2-2) Houston Texans are ahead of schedule in their rebuild. Give a lot of credit to first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud’s 1,212 passing yards are the second-most passing yards ever by a player in their first four career games. Maybe just as impressive is Stroud has no interceptions on his resume. He’s the second QB in league history with no interceptions in each of his first four starts.

Ryans is an early candidate for NFL Coach of the Year and Stroud is entering Week 5 as a front runner for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Both coach and player have exceeded expectations early in their careers. – Tyler Dragon

The Cincinnati Bengals' struggles

For me, it’s how utterly lost the Cincinnati Bengals look on offense. Yes, the Joe Burrow calf injury bears some blame in all of this, but the roster has far too much talent — especially at receiver with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — to be last in total offense (236 yards per game) and 29th in passing offense (166). Chase is tied for 16th in the NFL in receiving yards and is yet to haul in a touchdown. Higgins has two score but is stuck in a tie for 82nd with only 129 yards. In particular, the Bengal downfield passing attack is simply not there. Burrow ranks 31st in average intended air yards (6.3 per pass), with players like Desmond Ridder and Andy Dalton above him. The good news is that Cincinnati has the personnel and an innovative coaching staff that has the ability to turn the season around. But sitting at 1-3 and plunging down the AFC North standings, they don’t have much time, nor margin for error. – Lorenzo Reyes

Los Angeles Rams rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua

When I wrote in May about the most likely instant-impact rookies in this year's class, I thought that highlighting 13 names from the first two names would suffice. Turns out I, like almost everyone else, overlooked Puka Nacua. Of course, who could have foreseen a fifth-round receiver powering the NFL's second-ranked passing attack in Cooper Kupp's stead, with his 39 catches and 501 receiving yards representing records for a player in his first four games? While Kupp's return inevitably will alter the offense's balance, Nacua has been too much of a revelation to merely fade back into obscurity. If he continues to be a staple for Matthew Stafford, he could push to become the latest drafted player to win Offensive Rookie of the Year since Denver Broncos running back Mike Anderson (sixth round) took home the honor in the 2000 season. – Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz